DIRECTOR'S PERSPECTIVE

by Saruhan Hatipoglu sshatipoglu@beri.com

A BRIDGE TOO LONG:

Turkey's Most Important "Date" with the European Union

“Would You Do Me the Honor?:  After an extended period of wait-and-see, the European Commission finally gave the green light to begin accession negotiations with Turkey. As encouraging a decision as it was, this statement marks the beginning of a very difficult journey for the Turkish government that might be a bridge too long.The relationship between Turkey and the European Union (EU) can best be compared to a courtship of two parties, with the difference being that in any relation, there is either a break-up or a final commitment after a certain period of “getting to know one another.” This phase has been going onsince 1963, but on 6 October, the EU took an important step and opened the door for what can be described as the beginning of an arranged marriage. Ankara, the potential bride, is overjoyed with the news and noticeably romanticized, but Brussels, the prospective husband, does not think that the bride is that attractive, and the price may be too much.  The exact date of the union of the new union is not secure because Turkey is fully committed to the idea of marriage, while Brussels is still looking to see whether opportunities surface that permit the two can “just be friends.”

Both positions are justified.  Whatever one’s conclusion may be, Turkey is being asked for its most important date with the EU on 17 December, when the European Commission’s positive recommendation will be evaluated by the Union’s leaders.  Although this landmark decision is of paramount importance and deserves its place in history, Turkey’s EU membership is far from granted, and the road is filled with serious obstacles, ranging from economic issues to social and political hurdles.

A Symbolic Gesture:    The reality is that the EU had to provide a final date to begin negotiations this year and time was running out.  It had no other credible options because Turkey managed to surprise most, including many in the country, with the speed of the reform measures it has undertaken to meet the Copenhagen criteria under the leadership of the Justice and Development Party (AKP). Another fact is that more Europeans are against the idea of Turkey in the EU than are for it. Doubters have been temporarily convinced about the necessity of saying yes to Turkey on 6 October, but behind closed doors they are being assured that the eventual membership will not take place in the next 15-20 years, if that, given the most optimistic assumptions. Any other response from the EU would provoke a cathartic response from Turkey effectively ending relations, and that is not the type of risk that the EU was willing to take.

Expect Major Roadblocks:    In its 19-page long “Progress Report”, the European Commission points to “substantial legislative and institutional convergence” in Turkey to European standards.  But, the Commission is quick to note that implementation, not adoption, is the basis with which the future of Turkey’s EU pursuit will be evaluated.  The paper also underscores its discontent with the Code of Criminal Procedure, which is yet to be adopted by the Turkish Parliament.   The recent war of words with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and EU Commissioner Gunther Verheugen over adultery and its treatment in criminal law will not fade quickly from European memories.

Beyond simple politics, Turkey’s admission is a substantial challenge, which will expand the area of the EU by 18%, its population 15% while increasing the Union’s GDP by only 3%.  Compare this with numbers from the recent accession of ten new members.  The area grew by 23%, the population by 20% and the GDP by 4.4%.  Because of these numbers, the Commission rightly labels Turkey as a special case in its report that will require a more different method of accession methodology than previous candidates. Although this aspect of the report has not yet penetrated Turkish political circles due to victory speeches in Ankara, it will certainly come to haunt the government as negotiations get under way.  

Turkey’s Economic Problems Are Real:   The main issue is the gigantic population of Turkey, which has passed 70 million people and is forecast to be 90 million by 2025.  In addition, GDP per person is under US$7,000. This is far poorer than Poland (US$11,000), Hungary (US$14,650) and Czech Republic (US$15,800), all recent admissions to the European Union.  Even the poorest, Latvia’s GDP per capita, is considerably higher than that of Turkey. The Commission report views this situation as a potential danger but also an opportunity.  The latter is because the young and dynamic Turkish population is certainly the prescribed medicine for the ageing Continent.  Europeans clearly see the benefits of the integration from this perspective. A disturbing, yet expected, statement in the report focuses on the phrase permanent safeguard clause regarding freedom of labor movement. The EU will have the luxury to declare such a clause upon accession if its labor market is threatened by a disproportionate movement of workers from Turkey into the heartland of Europe. Another important point that the Commission makes is the enormous impact of accession on the economic prospects of the existing member states.  The Commission openly acknowledges that the admission of Turkey will provide a “major challenge for cohesion policy” and crowd out structural funds allocated for other countries in-need. A recent report showed that Turkey will receive between €16.5 billion-€27.9 billion in annual subsidies commencing from 2025.  The Commission also makes recommendations to strengthen the country’s agriculture, without which Turkish farmers will experience even more losses in income than experienced under the customs union agreement.  Substantial rural developments and an upgrade of administrative capacity are prerequisites for Turkey to participate efficiently in the Common Agriculture Program (CAP). The Commission report is a genuine evaluation of Turkish deficiencies as well as acknowledgement of the country’s successes so far, but the central message that it is sending needs to be acknowledged by leaders in Turkey sooner than later: This will be no ordinary accession.    

European Perceptions Cannot Be Overlooked: The intentions of the European Commission are clear:  Turkey should be part of the EU, and when appropriate reforms are carried out on a myriad of areas, the country will be welcomed.  The Commission is cognizant of the difficulties associated with accepting Turkey into Europe, where perception is reality.  In an interview with BERI earlier in mid-October, Serhan Cevik of Morgan Stanley characterized the Commission report as an “irreversible process” in its dealings with Turkey.  He said, “Many EU leaders in private support Turkey’s membership, but they also realize that they must fulfill their obligations to domestic constituents.”  France is already considering a referendum prior to Turkey’s accession, which is at the very least a decade away. This is, by itself, a confession of political fear and an end to Turkey’s chances because the majority of French people (64%) are against the country’s accession into the EU. This is not surprising. After all, the current Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin likened Turkey’s entry into Europe as “a river of Islam flowing into the riverbed of secularism.”  

Austria, likewise, is skeptical. In a letter written to Commission members last month, then-Agriculture Commissioner Franz Fischler labeled Turkey as more oriental than European, and he stated that the U.S. and the U.K. are primary supporters of Turkey in this initiative.  Fischler added, “Whether Turkey’s accession weakens the union’s political project is not their primary concern and may even be on their wish list.” From Portugal to Finland, there are questions about “histo-compatibility” with Turkey. And, it is these intangible issues that will prove more determining factors in Turkey’s fate than political and social reforms outlined in the roadmap. Mr. Cevik reminds us that Europe’s current economic problems are provoking a tougher response today from some circles to Turkey’s potential accession to the Union. A decade from today the picture might be quite different.

The Common Denominator Is Security and Natural Resources: Full membership to the European Union is quite challenging despite the seemingly positive Progress Report. But, Turkey might improve its chances if it plays its cards effectively to convince doubters that the country’s accession will be an asset for both parties involved. This is a high mountain to climb, but there are two issues that can help Turkey achieve its objective more rapidly.

First, it is fair to argue that the EU does not have a cohesive foreign policy.  In fact, this is the weakness of an otherwise strong union of countries. Europe has been longing for leadership in global foreign policy and would like to challenge the supremacy of the United States. However, this requires military power and a more comprehensive reach to the world outside of Europe. Turkey’s membership to the EU considerably strengthens both of these planks. With the largest army in NATO behind the U.S. and 7^th largest in the world, Turkey will significantly increase EU’s defense capabilities and its leverage on global security issues. Furthermore, its unique culture and geography will widen the Union’s scope giving an opportunity, if not at least an impression, for countries ranging from Central Asia to the troubled Middle East that their concerns will now be better represented in Europe.  Diversity will benefit the EU, particularly during these troubled and chaotic times.  The organization is fully aware of Turkey’s assets and how they can advance its foreign policy.

Second, natural resources strengthen Turkey’s hand in negotiations. I will not discuss the oil and natural gas issue in detail, except to say that Turkey’s admission to the EU will turn the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline into a tremendous asset for the organization.  A much-less talked about natural resource will be water.  Former President of Egypt, Anwar Sadat, once said that the next world war will be fought over water supplies. With 215 trans-boundary rivers and over 30% of national borders around water, it is not surprising that the U.N has identified about 300 potential water-conflict zones.  It is estimated that the average supply of water per person will contract by one-third, and almost 2 billion people will be living in areas with water scarcity by 2025. One of the regions under immediate threat is the Middle East, and Turkey is and will remain a key supplier to the area as a result of the US$32 billion giant Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP).  In twenty years, water scarcity in the Middle East will have intensified, and the EU will be a stronger organization with Turkey, which controls majority of the headwaters of the Tigris and Euphrates, one of the lifelines for the Middle East water supply.

Conclusion:  Turkey’s journey into Europe took a positive turn indeed with the Commission report on 6 October. The favorable recommendation to EU leaders breathed a new life to the country, energizing politicians and the population alike. However, it is too early to begin celebrations.  If one reads between the lines of the Commission report and adds the currently existing negative perceptions of Europeans towards the marriage of Turkey with the EU, it will be safe to say that the path to eventual partnership is filled with obstacles, some of which are not yet evident but will become apparent as each Chapter of negotiations gets under way.

During critical phases of the negotiation process, Turkey needs to convince Europeans by adhering to reform measures underlined in the Commission report and playing its comparative advantages effectively to prove that it will be an asset to the EU. And that is no easy task.  Turkey is shown the bridge to achieve the promising marriage but without the luxury of knowing the length of that bridge. Ankara might already be preparing the invitations and planning for the big day, but given the current conditions, it will take much longer than a decade until Turkey joins the European Union in Holy Matrimony.

DIRECTOR'S PERSPECTIVE Last Updated October 2004