F. T. Haner fthaner@beri.com

WHEN THE AMERICANS LEAVE IRAQ:

"The Day After" 

The Picture is Bleak  Sunni fundamentalists are queuing for the privilege of dying, the opportunity to kill American soldiers and a place in the battle against the majority Shiites, who are tiring of the attacks, the U.S. occupation and the day-to-day violence. Furthermore, the American public is increasing the frequency of asking for withdrawal. Although the troops are not likely to leave during the Bush administration term, it is probable that few Americans will be in Iraq at the end of 2009. The question is what happens when Washington, D.C. decides that the task has been accomplished? Some facts provide clues:

1- The two holiest mosques for Shiites are in Iraq at Najaf (190 km. south of Baghdad) and Karbala (73 km. south/southwest by limited access road from Baghdad).

2- The territory south of Baghdad is populated almost wholly by Shiites. It has some developed crude oil deposits but not the large reservoirs in the Kirkuk region north of Baghdad.

3- The Kurds are Sunni but are fiercely fighting for autonomy and an eventual Kurdistan. An alliance with the Iraqi Sunnis is improbable because the previous government spent decades destroying Kurds.

4- The Iranians are mostly Shiite. Some ethnic groups are Sunni, but the government in Teheran is dominated by Shiite clerics.

Various Scenarios and Implications   A civil war between the Shiite south and the armed Sunnis fomenting insurgency in mid-Iraq is probable. The hatred is deep-seated after many years of persecution under Saddam Hussein, and retaliation for the current atrocities will motivate a more determined effort to battle the Sunni Muslim enemy. A tactical problem will be the infiltration of Shiite-dominated territory by insurgents and the same lack of security that presently exists.

This is the time that Iran will offer financial and military assistance to the Shiite government and discuss a federation. The crude oil around Kirkuk will be claimed by the Sunni insurgency, and aid from the U.S. is likely to be minimal when an alliance with Teheran is being considered. A fresh source of funds and weapons will be welcome, and a battle that is reminiscent of the ten-year war between Iran and Iraq will begin; however, this time, Shiites will not be fighting each other. The Kurds will take the opportunity to create Kurdistan with a capital in Mosul. Factions will unite to secure borders.

A lower probability scenario is a negotiated settlement with no warfare. In this case, a northern border for the Shiites is established between Baghdad and Tikrit. The Sunnis get the Kirkuk crude oil. The Kurds provide secure passage of oil in pipelines through Kurdistan, and fees for the exports provide revenue for Mosul. The federation with Iran evolves toward completion because Baghdad realizes that a negotiated settlement would not have been feasible without the position taken by Teheran. This accord gives Shiites access to Najaf and Karbala in the same way that Sunnis make pilgrimages to Mecca and Medina in Saudi Arabia.

This series of events is a nightmare for Washington, D.C., Riyadh and Ankara:

1- The pre-positioned military equipment, supplies, and weapons placed in secure locations within Iraq by the U.S. government are no longer secure. They are in a country aligned with Iran.

2- Baghdad could give Teheran permission to mass troops along Iraq's border with Saudi Arabia (about 825 km.) or allow a blitzkrieg-type invasion.

3- The Kurds occupy territory in southeast Turkey and northeast Syria. Ankara would expect Kurds in Turkey to fight for a border that expanded Kurdistan into Turkey.

        Conclusion    Sunni Saudi Arabia has a high probability of an internal coup d'etat, but an invasion by Iran has low probability. However, when the U.S. withdraws from Iraq, most analysts doubt that Washington, D.C. will put troops on the ground again in the Middle East. The enemy does not wear a uniform that exposes him as the bad guy, and Americans are vulnerable in guerrilla warfare. They find themselves fighting in a place where they do not know the language, the customs and the history of relationships. Doing it three times (Vietnam and Iraq preceding) would require such special conditions as approval and participation by China, European Union, and Russia as well as a more broad acceptance from the American public this time around. In future conflicts that would require the implementation of diplomacy and force, the world's only superpower might just not be so super any longer.

A WORD FROM THE CEO Last Updated 13 February 2006

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