Saruhan Hatipoglu sshatipoglu@beri.com

UKRAINE'S NOT-SO-ORANGE REVOLUTION:

Days of Acrimony

Election Outcome and the Orange Revolution When Ukrainians voted for the new parliament in late March, not many had anticipated that the outcome would be detrimental to the country's famous "Orange Revolution."    To this day, some analysts claim that the movement will survive because of the nature of the coalition that is being negotiated.  However, the poll result showed that people of Ukraine had a different interpretation of recent political developments in the country.  The pro-Russian opposition, Party of Regions, received the highest percentage of votes (32.14%) and won 186 seats in the 450-seat parliament.  It is probable that the Party of Regions will  not have the opportunity to create the next coalition government, but it is equally important to underline that it is still the party that received the most votes in this election. 

One possibility is that the outcome was a protest vote against the carriers of the "Orange" flag, reminding them that they disappointed the country and principles for which the Orange Revolution stood.  Maybe, the voting simply reflected the true sentiments of the Ukrainians and that they thought the path to follow was in the direction of Russia.  Whatever the reason, the result is clear: Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc (YTB) obtained 22.29% of the votes (129 seats) and Our Ukraine Bloc had 13.95% of the total (81 seats).  Both parties are unable to advance the principles and promises of the Orange Revolution individually.   What is worse, they might even not be able to defend it together.

Orange on Life Support  Concerned by the possibility of returning to old days under the Russian influence, parties supporting the Orange Revolution decided to form a coalition to neutralize the Party of Regions.  Coalition politics is the first sign of leadership trouble in democracies.  This is more true in cases where parties representing different ideologies form a government only with the intention to assume power.  This is clearly not the situation in Ukraine, which would influence outside observers to think that the Orange Revolution is still safe.  It is true that the three parties that agreed to form a coalition, YTB, Our Ukraine, and the Socialist Party (5.69% of the votes and 33 seats in the parliament), are supporters of the new era brought about by the Orange Revolution.  However, they lack the political leadership and the vision to assure that the movement will progress.  Personal ambitions and personality differences will stand in the way of forming a strong government and setting a clear direction for Ukraine.

President Viktor Yushcenko supported the signing of a protocol between the three parties on 13 April in an effort to form a coalition government.    However, he is adamantly against Ms. Tymoshenko becoming the prime minister.   Mr. Yuschenko had fired her previously, blaming her for Ukraine's economic difficulties.   Ms. Tymoshenko, in turn, had accused the President of surrounding himself with corrupt and inept advisers.  Our Ukraine will continue to champion the idea that the proposed coalition partners should first decide on a governing platform before distributing posts.  Disagreements will linger, and when the final decision is made about the composition of the new government, the parties might still, on paper, support the principles of the Orange Revolution.   However, the spirit of what that movement represents will have been substantially modified and damaged.

Conclusion  Four scenarios are possible for the future government in Ukraine:

1-   YTB, Our Ukraine, and the Socialist Party form the next government.   The revolution is still "Orange" but lacks the political will and determination to move it forward.

2-   A coalition between the Party of Regions, Our Ukraine and the Socialist Party is formed, thereby neutralizing the YTB. 

3-   Involved parties fail to agree on an acceptable form of government with a satisfactory distribution of cabinet and political posts.   The outcome results in the President dissolving parliament and calling new elections.

4-   Angered by the outcome, Ms. Tymoshenko takes her cause to the streets, galvanizing the people of Ukraine.  The objective is to force the President to appoint her to be prime minister.   Chaos develops, and calls for the impeachment of the president are heard. 

All four options, including the first one, which is the most beneficial for the future of the Orange Revolution, will mark the end of that movement.  The spirit which had characterized the changes taking place in Ukraine at the time will have evaporated.  Option 1 would effectively allow the continuation of the revolution but with the YTB and Our Ukraine having deep scars and bitterness toward one another.  Option 3 is, in fact, an admission that the spirit of the Orange Revolution is dead.  Option 4 is the worst case scenario for Ukraine with parties that created the Orange Revolution fighting each other on the streets.  Option 2, which effectively ends the Orange Revolution by including the Party of the Regions in the government, sounds like the most reasonable alternative.  In the words of Kost Bondarenko, the director of the Kiev Horshenin Institute of Management Problems, "the issue is now uniting the country rather than uniting half of Ukraine."

DIRECTOR'S PERSPECTIVE Last Updated 27 April 2006

For media inquiries: Contact Saruhan Hatipoglu (Director of BERI S.A.) at sshatipoglu@beri.com